A good trick that I just learned for anyone that wants to listen to this update rather than read it. If you go to the Substack app on your phone there is a play button at the top and an AI voice will read this to you. Give it a try and let me know your thoughts.
Over the past week, NSW and Qld have both handed down their state Budgets, from a property perspective NSW has focussed on boosting supply and Qld has focussed on boosting demand and supporting first home buyers. While people will probably support the Qld government’s approach I much prefer what NSW is doing.
Elsewhere, we saw monthly inflation data, quarterly job vacancies, quarterly household wealth data, information on the Bank of Mum and Dad and preliminary auction clearance rates were also published.
Let’s run through it all.
NSW State Budget 2025-26 - housing focus
Key insights
A five year pre-sale finance guarantee for developers with planning approval which subject to approval will apply to 50% of the properties in the approved building and it is a guarantee the State Government would purchase unsold dwellings at a discounted rate.
Land tax concessions for Build-to-Rent (BTR) housing of 50% of the land value have been extended indefinitely.
$122m to streamline assessment processes and housing delivery
What does it mean?
This is good housing policy for NSW. Presales are a significant hurdle for developers currently and the presale finance guarantee will likely allow developers to access finance sooner and hopefully result in more much needed housing being delivered sooner. I am always sceptical about incentives for BTR while we need more housing BTR is a premium product and I am unclear as to the value of concessions we’re now offering to overseas capital for BTR projects as opposed to the concessions we provide to individual investors. Working to streamline approval processes and housing delivery is a good thing to invest in.
Qld State Budget 2025-26 - housing focus
Key insights
Boost to Buy Scheme - equity contribution of up to 30% for new homes and 25% for existing homes homes up to a price cap of $1 million with income limits set at $150,000 for singles and $225,000 for couples.
$30,000 First Home Owner’s Grant extended by 12 months
$500 million per year to support the delivery of 53,500 social and community homes by 2044.
What does it mean?
To be blunt, I hate government equity schemes. All they do is increase demand for housing, put taxpayer funds on the line for losses and with government now invested in homes policies are likely to align with higher home prices rather than more affordable prices. I will write more about first home buyer grants and stimulus soon but my feelings are very similar about First Home Owner’s Grants. Money for more social and community housing is money well spent in my mind.
ABS Monthly CPI Indicator May 2025
Key insights
The annual change in the All Groups Monthly CPI was +2.1% in May 25, the lowest annual rate of growth since October 24 and down from +2.4% in April 25.
The annual change in the Monthly CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel was +2.7% in May 25, down from +2.8% in April 25
The annual change in trimmed mean inflation was +2.4% in May 25, down from +2.8% in April 25 and the lowest annual growth rate since November 21.
What does it mean?
While the RBA doesn’t typically place as much weight on the monthly CPI indicator as it does the quarterly number, this data clearly shows inflationary pressures are easing. When you couple this data with the weak GDP data and softer than expected labour force data over recent weeks, this significantly increases the likelihood that the RBA will reduce the cash rate when they next meet (7 and 8 July). I now expect that at this meeting the RBA will lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%.
ABS Job Vacancies May 2025
Key insights
In May 25 there were 339,400 job vacancies nationally which was +2.9% over the quarter and -2.8% over the year.
Across the states and territories the change in job vacancies over the year were: NSW (-6%), Vic (-6.1%), Qld (+6%), SA (+6.6%), WA (-3.6%), Tas (-15%), NT (-13.2%) and ACT (+0.4%).
Across property related industry groups, there were 22,300 job vacancies in construction which was -10.4% over the year and there were 5,800 job vacancies in rental, hiring and real estate services which was +1.8% over the year.
What does it mean?
On a historic basis, job vacancies remain at an elevated but over recent years they have fallen quite sharply from their highs. Vacancies have stabilised over recent quarters so it will be interesting to monitor if they shift lower again as job creation has slowed of late and the economy remains soft. High job vacancies offers some people the opportunity to shift jobs for better pay and conditions which may enable them to purchase property. This may also be exacerbated by the reduction in interest rates we’ve already had as well as future rate reductions.
ABS Finance and Wealth March 2025 quarter
Key insights
Total household assets reached $20.575 trillion in March 25 which was +0.9% over the quarter and +6.1% over the year, its slowest annual growth since Jun 23.
Total household liabilities reached $3.265 trillion in March 25 which was +1.3% over the quarter and +5.7% over the year.
As a result, household net worth reached $17.310 trillion which was +0.8% over the quarter and +6.2% over they year.
The value of dwellings owned by households was $3.171 trillion which was +1.5% over the quarter and +5.7% over the year, while the value or residential land was $7.748 trillion and +1.0% over the quarter and +5.9% over the quarter, its slowest growth since Sep 23.
What does it mean
Household assets and net worth continued to rise over the quarter but at a quite slow pace. This was also reflected in quite slow growth in the value of residential land and dwellings which account for a majority of household assets. With an interest rate cut late in the March 25 quarter and a follow-up cut in the June 25 quarter I would expect that over the next few quarters we will start to see a lift in the rate of growth in dwelling and residential land value which will support higher household asset values.
Mozo Bank of Mum and Dad Report 2025
Key insights
The ‘Bank of Mum and Dad’ has turned into the ‘Gift of Mum and Dad’ with 75% of parents not expecting to be repaid the money they have given to their kids for a home to be repaid, up from 33% in 2021.
49% of parents didn’t expect to be repaid and 26% explicitly said that the money was a gift.
On the flip-side 55% of parents in 2025 said that they didn’t get any financial help from their parents to buy a home.
The average amount that parents gifted their children for a home deposit was $74,040 in 20205, up from $69,907 in 2021 with 54% of respondents dipping into their savings to help, 29% of help coming from their income and 19% coming from them cutting back on their expenses.
What does it mean?
Whilst parents helping their kids buy a home isn’t necessarily a new phenomenon the magnitude of help has increased and their is less of an expectation that the money is repaid. Sadly, as the cost of housing continues to climb and government continues to introduce policies that inflate demand and property prices, then more people are going to be reliant on parental help to enter the housing market. Those children with parents without the means or willingness to assist are likely going to increasingly find it more difficult and have to wait longer to enter into home ownership.
Cotality Preliminary Auction Clearance Rates week ending 29 June 2025
Key insights
The preliminary auction clearance rate last week was recorded at 74.5% with Cotality reporting it was the highest preliminary clearance rate since the first week of July last year.
Across the combined capital cities there were 2,103 auctions which was higher than the 2,004 the previous week and 2,030 the same week last year.
Throughout the main auction markets the preliminary auction clearance rates over the most recent week compared to the previous week were: Sydney (73.5% vs 73.5%), Melbourne (75.2% vs 76.6%), Brisbane (76.1% vs 66.7%), Adelaide (80.8% vs 77.5%) and Canberra (63.8% vs 55.3%),
What does it mean?
The auction market continues to strengthen with preliminary clearance rates reaching highs not seen in almost a year despite the high volume of auctions taking place. These results highlight improving market strength and buyers being encouraged by the interest rate reductions to-date and the expectations of further rate cuts to come. I continue to expect auction clearance rates to remain around their current levels over the coming weeks.
Excellent article thanks Cam - the AI feature works on the site as well and delivers a reasonable reading of your text, although predictably it reads out NSW and QLD as the letters, rather than as the states.
It's a pity that QLD is following policy along political lines rather than addressing the core problem of supply. Having said that, they haven't been alone with parties from both sides having contributed to this problem over the past 20 years.
Keep the analysis coming!